Credit Risk Management: The Ultimate Guide

by Theresa Nguyen 5 min read December 7, 2023

Today’s lenders use expanded data sources and advanced analytics to predict credit risk more accurately and optimize their lending and operations. The result may be a win-win for lenders and customers.

What is credit risk?

Credit risk is the possibility that a borrower will not repay a debt as agreed. Credit risk management encompasses the policies, tools and systems that lenders use to understand this risk. These can be important throughout the customer lifecycle, from marketing and sending preapproved offers to underwriting and portfolio management.

Poor risk management can lead to unnecessary losses and missed opportunities, especially because risk departments need to manage risk with their organization’s budgetary, technical and regulatory constraints in mind.

How is it assessed?

Credit risk is often assessed with credit risk analytics — statistical modeling that predicts the risk involved with credit lending. Lenders may create and use credit risk models to help drive decisions. Additionally (or alternatively), they rely on generic or custom credit risk scores:

Generic scores: Analytics companies create predictive models that rank order consumers based on the likelihood that a person will fall 90 or more days past due on any credit obligation in the next 24 months. Lenders can purchase these risk scores to help them evaluate risk.
Custom scores: Custom credit risk modeling solutions help organizations tailor risk scores for particular products, markets, and customers. Custom scores can incorporate generic risk scores, traditional credit data, alternative credit data* (or expanded FCRA-regulated data), and a lender’s proprietary data to increase their effectiveness.

About 41 percent of consumer lending organizations use a model-first approach, and 55 percent use a score-first approach to credit decisioning.¹ However, these aren’t entirely exclusive groupings.

For example, a credit score may be an input in a lender’s credit risk model — almost every lender (99 percent) that uses credit risk models for decisioning also uses credit scores.² Similarly, lenders that primarily rely on credit scores may also have business policies that affect their decisions.

What are the current challenges?

Risk departments and teams are facing several overarching challenges today:

Staying flexible: Volatile market conditions and changing consumer preferences can lead to unexpected shifts in risk. Organizations need to actively monitor customer accounts and larger economic trends to understand when, if, and how they should adjust their risk policies.
Digesting an overwhelming amount of data: More data can be beneficial, but only if it offers real insights and the organization has the resources to understand and use it efficiently. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are often important for turning raw data into actionable insights.
Retaining IT talent: Many organizations are trying to figure out how to use vast amounts of data and AI/ML effectively. However, 82 percent of lenders have trouble hiring and retaining data scientists and analysts.³
Separating fraud and credit losses: Understanding a portfolio’s credit losses can be important for improving credit risk models and performance. But some organizations struggle to properly distinguish between the two, particularly when synthetic identity fraud is involved.

Best practices for credit risk management

Leading financial institutions have moved on from legacy systems and outdated risk models or scores. And they’re looking at the current challenges as an opportunity to pull away from the competition. Here’s how they’re doing it:

Using additional data to gain a holistic picture: Lenders have an opportunity to access more data sources, including credit data from alternative financial services and consumer-permissioned data. When combined with traditional credit data, credit scores, and internal data, the outcome can be a more complete picture of a consumer’s credit risk.
Implementing AI/ML-driven models: Lenders can leverage AI/ML to analyze large amounts of data to improve organizational efficiency and credit risk assessments. 16 percent of consumer lending organizations expect to solely use ML algorithms for credit decisioning, while two-thirds expect to use both traditional and ML models going forward.⁴
Increasing model velocity: On average, it takes about 15 months to go from model development to deployment. But some organizations can do it in less than six.⁵ Increasing model velocity can help organizations quickly respond to changing consumer and economic conditions.

Even if rapid model creation and deployment isn’t an option, monitoring model health and recalibrating for drift is important. Nearly half (49 percent) of lenders check for model drift monthly or quarterly — one out of ten get automated alerts when their models start to drift.⁶

WATCH: Accelerating Model Velocity in Financial Institutions

Improving automation and customer experience

Lenders are using AI to automate their application, underwriting, and approval processes. Often, automation and ML-driven risk models go hand-in-hand. Lenders can use the models to measure the credit risk of consumers who don’t qualify for traditional credit scores and automation to expedite the review process, leading to an improved customer experience.

Learn more by exploring Experian’s credit risk solutions.

Learn more

* When we refer to “Alternative Credit Data,” this refers to the use of alternative data and its appropriate use in consumer credit lending decisions as regulated by the Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA). Hence, the term “Expanded FCRA Data” may also apply in this instance and both can be used interchangeably.

1-6. Experian (2023). Accelerating Model Velocity in Financial Institutions

How First-Party Fraud is Hiding in Banks’ Credit Losse...

Credit Lending

For many banks, first-party fraud has become a silent drain on profitability. On paper, it often looks like classic credit risk: an account books, goes delinquent, and ultimately charges off. But a growing share of those early charge-offs is driven by something else entirely: customers who never intended to pay you back. That distinction matters. When first-party fraud is misclassified as credit risk, banks risk overstating credit loss, understating fraud exposure, and missing opportunities to intervene earlier.  In our recent Consumer Banker Association (CBA) partner webinar, “Fraud or Financial Distress? How to Differentiate Fraud and Credit Risk Early,” Experian shared new data and analytics to help fraud, risk and collections leaders see this problem more clearly. This post summarizes key themes from the webinar and points you to the full report and on-demand webinar for deeper insight. Why first-party fraud is a growing issue for banks  Banks are seeing rising early losses, especially in digital channels. But those losses do not always behave like traditional credit deterioration. Several trends are contributing:  More accounts opened and funded digitally  Increased use of synthetic or manipulated identities  Economic pressure on consumers and small businesses  More sophisticated misuse of legitimate credentials  When these patterns are lumped into credit risk, banks can experience:  Inflation of credit loss estimates and reserves  Underinvestment in fraud controls and analytics  Blurred visibility into what is truly driving performance   Treating first-party fraud as a distinct problem is the first step toward solving it.  First-payment default: a clearer view of intent  Traditional credit models are designed to answer, “Can this customer pay?” and “How likely are they to roll into delinquency over time?” They are not designed to answer, “Did this customer ever intend to pay?” To help banks get closer to that question, Experian uses first-payment default (FPD) as a key indicator. At a high level, FPD focuses on accounts that become seriously delinquent early in their lifecycle and do not meaningfully recover.  The principle is straightforward:  A legitimate borrower under stress is more likely to miss payments later, with periods of cure and relapse.  A first-party fraudster is more likely to default quickly and never get back on track.  By focusing on FPD patterns, banks can start to separate cases that look like genuine financial distress from those that are more consistent with deceptive intent.  The full report explains how FPD is defined, how it varies by product, and how it can be used to sharpen bank fraud and credit strategies. Beyond FPD: building a richer fraud signal  FPD alone is not enough to classify first-party fraud. In practice, leading banks are layering FPD with behavioral, application and identity indicators to build a more reliable picture. At a conceptual level, these indicators can include:  Early delinquency and straight-roll behavior  Utilization and credit mix that do not align with stated profile  Unusual income, employment, or application characteristics High-risk channels, devices, or locations at application Patterns of disputes or behaviors that suggest abuse  The power comes from how these signals interact, not from any one data point. The report and webinar walk through how these indicators can be combined into fraud analytics and how they perform across key banking products.  Why it matters across fraud, credit and collections Getting first-party fraud right is not just about fraud loss. It impacts multiple parts of the bank. Fraud strategy Well-defined quantification of first-party fraud helps fraud leaders make the case for investments in identity verification, device intelligence, and other early lifecycle controls, especially in digital account opening and digital lending. Credit risk and capital planning When fraud and credit losses are blended, credit models and reserves can be distorted. Separating first-party fraud provides risk teams a cleaner view of true credit performance and supports better capital planning.  Collections and customer treatment Customers in genuine financial distress need different treatment paths than those who never intended to pay. Better segmentation supports more appropriate outreach, hardship programs, and collections strategies, while reserving firmer actions for abuse.  Executive and board reporting Leadership teams increasingly want to understand what portion of loss is being driven by fraud versus credit. Credible data improves discussions around risk appetite and return on capital.  What leading banks are doing differently  In our work with financial institutions, several common practices have emerged among banks that are getting ahead of first-party fraud: 1. Defining first-party fraud explicitly They establish clear definitions and tracking for first-party fraud across key products instead of leaving it buried in credit loss categories.  2. Embedding FPD segmentation into analytics They use FPD-based views in their monitoring and reporting, particularly in the first 6–12 months on book, to better understand early loss behavior.  3. Unifying fraud and credit decisioning Rather than separate strategies that may conflict, they adopt a more unified decisioning framework that considers both fraud and credit risk when approving accounts, setting limits and managing exposure.  4. Leveraging identity and device data They bring in noncredit data — identity risk, device intelligence, application behavior — to complement traditional credit information and strengthen models.  5. Benchmarking performance against peers They use external benchmarks for first-party fraud loss rates and incident sizes to calibrate their risk posture and investment decisions.  The post is meant as a high-level overview. The real value for your teams will be in the detailed benchmarks, charts and examples in the full report and the discussion in the webinar.  If your teams are asking whether rising early losses are driven by fraud or financial distress, this is the moment to look deeper at first-party fraud.  Download the report: “First-party fraud: The most common culprit” Explore detailed benchmarks for first-party fraud across banking products, see how first-payment default and other indicators are defined and applied, and review examples you can bring into your own internal discussions.  Download the report Watch the on-demand CBA webinar: “Fraud or Financial Distress? How to Differentiate Fraud and Credit Risk Early”  Hear Experian experts walk through real bank scenarios, FPD analytics and practical steps for integrating first-party fraud intelligence into your fraud, credit, and collections strategies.  Watch the webinar First-party fraud is likely already embedded in your early credit losses. With the right analytics and definitions, banks can uncover the true drivers, reduce hidden fraud exposure, and better support customers facing genuine financial hardship.

by Brittany Ennis 5 min read February 12, 2026